United States

• The US Fed held interest rates in 4.25% – 4.50% range, despite Trump pressure. No hint of September cut.
• In June, the annual rate of inflation increased more than expected to 2.7%, up from 2.4% in May. US GDP grew 3.0% in Q2, boosted by a 30% decline in imports.
• Trade deals have been reached with Japan and EU. Chinese and Mexican negotiations are ongoing.
• The S&P 500 and Nasdaq notched a series of all-time high closes in July and closed the month with gains of 2.2% and 3.7% respectively, fuelled by better-than-expected corporate earnings, led by big tech.

UK/Europe

• A 15% tariff on EU goods, less than feared, but higher than hoped. The US and EU economies account for almost a third of global trade.
• ECB President, Christine Lagarde said the Central Bank was in “wait-and-see” mode after leaving interest rates unchanged for the first time in more than a year

Asia

• GDP in China held up well in Q2, growing by 5.2% y/y, driven by export front-loading to take advantage of the tariff truce with the US. The trade truce boosted exports to a record high in the first half of the year — US$114.77 billion.
• Japanese automakers led a surge on the stock exchange, after Tokyo reached a trade deal with Washington. The Toyota share price rose more than 10%. The trade deal reduced economic uncertainty, bolstering the case for the Bank of Japan to resume raising interest rates.

South Africa

• The SARB announced a 25bp cut to the benchmark repo rate, down to 7%. The prime lending rate is now at 10.50%. In June 2025, annual CPI increased to 3.0% y/y.
• Efforts to secure a better trade deal with the US and avoid the blanket 30% tariff have been unsuccessful.
• Canal+ got SA competition approval for R52.7 billion MultiChoice deal, which cleared the way for the largest pay-tv and streaming business on the continent.
• SA secured a R10 billion climate loan for energy reforms from Germany’s KFW Development Bank.
• The FTSE/JSE All Share Index was up 2.3% in July, led by resources which gained 5.1%.

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