Walking the tightrope of choice

In June, we invited everyone to join us once again for our annual economic and political seminar, Elephant in the Room.

Host Michael Summerton welcomed STANLIB’s chief economist, Kevin Lings, and political analyst, Frans Cronje, to delve into the pressing issues confronting South Africa. The panel explored potential pivotal decisions and events, some of which were more conspicuous than others, that could have far-reaching consequences for our nation and its people.

As a country, we found ourselves in a transitional phase that had been in the making for decades and might have required several more years to resolve. Each day presented a fresh set of hurdles that the government, businesses, and civil society had to confront. Did our future hold promise, or would it be a continuation of the status quo?

About the Webinar

South Africa was currently in a very difficult transition phase that had been decades in the making and might take several more to resolve. Everywhere we looked, we saw, lived, and felt the palpable impact of poor historical policy decisions. Each day brought a new set of opportunities and challenges that the government, businesses, and civil society had to face. Given this, what might some probable futures hold for us? These futures could be influenced by key decisions and events, some more visible than others, and they could have far-reaching consequences.

We explored a few of these significant stepping stones in the context of:

1. Global geopolitical and economic influences impacting the South African economy and the political game being played on the international stage, which could affect our economic and political future as a country.

• Key indicators we needed to be aware of as we navigated these decisions.
• South Africa in the context of Russia, America, China, and BRICS.
• Our role (or lack thereof) and our relative political position and its impact on our economy.

2. Local economic indicators, as well as political and fiscal influences and decisions, considering:

• • Monetary policy – what we didn’t see was sometimes more important than what we did.
  • Politics of the upcoming election year – understanding the reality of political opinion on the ground and the turbulent feedback loops at play amongst voters.
  • Infrastructure.
  • Budget.

3. The mindset of the South African investor.

• Where and how we could make rational decisions in this context.

1. The relative attractiveness of offshore vs local assets.
2. The impact of policy on locally based companies.

• Critical pillars needed for a positive future for South Africa.
• How we could objectively evaluate whether a country was a ‘failed state’.

4. In conclusion, we reflected on the steps we needed to be aware of as signposts for a potential future South Africa and whether or not the world believed this future was possible.